Hugo Chávez's re-election: International implications

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Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez has been re-elected on October 7 and will assume his fourth term in power. The opposition leader Henrique Capriles has immediately acknowledged the results, legitimating the electoral outcome.

Official data shows [es] that 55.2% vote for Hugo Chávez and 44.1% supported Henrique Capriles, the United opposition candidate. The total turn out overpass 81%, of the 19-million electorate, being this one of the most attended elections in Venezuela's history.

There is no electoral fraud, intimidation or coercion officially reported so far. Analysts suggest the electoraleffectiveness of Chávez lay on the large amount of cash and resources that the ruling PSUV (Chavez party) uses for continuing political campaigning, the charisma of the leader with a powerful historic and symbolic political narrative, as well as the active social and political structure behind the leadership. 

Also, as Venezuelan analyst Miguel Angel Martinez argues, many people makes a cost-effective calculation wherebyChavez is convenient in the short-run. It is not irrational but rather utilitarian as there are a number of social programmes carried out in the country directly linked to the figure of the leader and the fear of loosing the aid arose as a voting for the ruling regime.

The re-re-re-elected president's first speech was brief, emotive and rather conciliatory. Chávez called to work for a better “revolutionary democratic socialism”, overcoming the polarised political division within the country. Remarkably, Chávez's speech reflects he is aware of the opposition electoral progress and Capriles', a centre-left politician, appears as a key actor in the future. 

Further down I analyse the Regional and international foreign policy implications of Chávez's re-election.

LIIA update: Malvinas/Falklands: Beyond the Bilateral Conflict

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On a second post for the Latvian Institute of International Affairs (liia.lv) I am discussing the Malvinas/Falklands issue, beyond the bilateral conflict.

I argue that other key players in the Region could be seeking to displace not only British but also NATO control in the South Atlantic, in a new diplomatic and geopolitical chapter for this yet unsolved issue.

This is certainly about the Argentinian's historic vindication, It's also about oil and fishing reserves in the South Atlantic. However, latest events my lead to a rather more complex recomposition of other interests this time supported by Brazil, the consolidated Regional power that may be seeking a leading role not only from an economic but also geopolitical point of view.

Feel free read the full article on http://liia.lv/en/blogs/malvinasfalklands-beyond-the-bilateral-conflict/ and comment.

Latin America & the Baltics, a common interest agenda?

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Latin America - Baltics

Is there a common interest agenda between [some] Latin American countries and the Baltics?

I began to deal with this question by exploring alternatives and proposing three starting points on my first post at the Latvian Institute of Foreign Affairs (www.liia.lv).

I suggest that democratic governability, participation and accountability experiences can be rewarding in both regions as democratic processes are recent -two or three decades ago-, there are strong civil commitment toward enhancing democracy, but also a number of unsolved issues undermining a constructive democratic governance.

Western European and Nordic countries have supported both processes of democratisation. It would be rather interesting to bridge this two regions from comparative and analytical and evaluation points of view.