Hugo Chávez's re-election: International implications

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Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez has been re-elected on October 7 and will assume his fourth term in power. The opposition leader Henrique Capriles has immediately acknowledged the results, legitimating the electoral outcome.

Official data shows [es] that 55.2% vote for Hugo Chávez and 44.1% supported Henrique Capriles, the United opposition candidate. The total turn out overpass 81%, of the 19-million electorate, being this one of the most attended elections in Venezuela's history.

There is no electoral fraud, intimidation or coercion officially reported so far. Analysts suggest the electoraleffectiveness of Chávez lay on the large amount of cash and resources that the ruling PSUV (Chavez party) uses for continuing political campaigning, the charisma of the leader with a powerful historic and symbolic political narrative, as well as the active social and political structure behind the leadership. 

Also, as Venezuelan analyst Miguel Angel Martinez argues, many people makes a cost-effective calculation wherebyChavez is convenient in the short-run. It is not irrational but rather utilitarian as there are a number of social programmes carried out in the country directly linked to the figure of the leader and the fear of loosing the aid arose as a voting for the ruling regime.

The re-re-re-elected president's first speech was brief, emotive and rather conciliatory. Chávez called to work for a better “revolutionary democratic socialism”, overcoming the polarised political division within the country. Remarkably, Chávez's speech reflects he is aware of the opposition electoral progress and Capriles', a centre-left politician, appears as a key actor in the future. 

Further down I analyse the Regional and international foreign policy implications of Chávez's re-election.

Considerations on Belarus upgraded relations in Latin America

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Chávez y Lukashenko, 26th June 2012. CC via Chavezcandanga

Published on the Latvian Institute of International Affairs blog.

Yes, you read the title correctly. Belarus is upgrading strategic relations with some countries in Latin America.

Following Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad diplomatic strategy, Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko is paying a five-day official visit to Cuba, Venezuela and Ecuador, three key anti-American players with notorious but not decisive leadership in Latin America.

Official statements released by Belarusian government underline strategic alliances in the areas of agriculture and biotechnology (with Cuba) automotive industry, housing and, of course, oil and gas (with Venezuela and Ecuador). 

Minsk is clearly seeking strategic support outside EU and US area of influence. The ALBA countries, like Cuba and Nicaragua, are welcoming such alternative as a reactivation of the erstwhile political relations and cooperation maintained with the Soviet Union during the second half of the twentieth century.